The Degradation Trajectory

The degradation trajectory is the empirical pattern that Ure's substitution principle produces over time. It has three stages. In the first, the machinery is new and limited, and the human worker's expertise is genuinely essential to its effective operation — skilled partnership. In the second, the machinery has improved, and the human role has thinned to routine monitoring of a process the machine now controls. In the third, the machinery has improved further, and the human presence has been reduced to mere overlooking — a concession to the enterprise's residual anxiety about what might go wrong if no human were watching. The trajectory has been documented across industries and centuries with remarkable consistency. The power loom, the assembly line, the automated typesetting system, the industrial welding cell — each followed the same arc. The AI tools in 2026 are in the first stage for most knowledge work. The trajectory predicts the second and third stages. The question is speed.