WORK
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Tetlock and Dan Gardner's 2015 bestseller documenting the Good Judgment Project — proving that ordinary citizens trained in probabilistic reasoning outperform intelligence analysts with access to classified information.
Superforecasting, published by Crown in 2015 and co-authored with journalist Dan Gardner, translated the Good Judgment Project's findings into operational methodology. The book argued that forecasting excellence is a skill, not a talent, and enumerated the specific cognitive habits that distinguish superforecasters: thinking in probabilities, breaking complex questions into components, updating beliefs based on evidence, seeking disconfirmation, and avoiding identity-protective reasoning. The book became a New York Times bestseller and required reading in intelligence agencies, corporations, and policy schools worldwide. Its central claim — that structured training produces measurable, durable improvement in judgment — represented a paradigm shift from viewing forecasting as an art practiced by credentialed experts to viewing it as a discipline accessible to anyone willing to practice.
In The You On AI Field Guide
The Good Judgment Project (2011–2015), funded by IARPA, was a tournament pitting five research teams against each other in a multi-year forecasting competition. Tetlock's team