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Good Judgment Project
The 2011–2015 IARPA-funded forecasting tournament that demonstrated ordinary citizens could outperform intelligence analysts — Tetlock's proof that calibrated judgment is a trainable skill, not an innate gift.
Launched in 2011 under Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) funding, the Good Judgment Project recruited thousands of volunteers to make probabilistic forecasts on geopolitical events. Tetlock's team competed against four other research groups, and won decisively — so decisively that IARPA ended the tournament two years ahead of schedule. The mechanism of victory was replicable: a one-hour training module in probabilistic reasoning, combined with a platform enabling forecasters to update estimates as evidence accumulated. Superforecasters — the top two percent of performers — beat intelligence analysts with access to classified information by roughly thirty percent, demonstrating that cognitive habits matter more than credentials or secret intelligence.
In The You On AI Field Guide
The tournament asked participants to forecast events whose outcomes would be known within months or years: Would Greece exit the Eurozone? Would North Korea conduct another nuclear test? Would violence in Syria escalate past a specific threshold? Each question required a probability estimate that could be continuously updated as news