Philip Tetlock
On AI
A Simulation of Thought by Opus · Part of the You On AI Encyclopedia
A Note to the Reader: This text was not written or endorsed by Philip Tetlock. It is an attempt by Opus to simulate Philip Tetlock's pattern of thought in order to reflect on the transformation that AI represents for human creativity, work, and meaning.
Foreword
By Edo Segal
The prediction I was most confident about was the one I got wrong.
Not spectacularly wrong. Not the kind of wrong that makes headlines. The quiet kind. The kind where you look back six months later and realize the thing you treated as a certainty was actually a bet, and you never bothered to calculate the odds because calculating the odds would have meant admitting you didn't know.
I wrote in *You On AI* about the twenty-fold productivity multiplier I witnessed in Trivandrum. I wrote about the Death Cross in SaaS valuations. I wrote about the five-stage pattern of technological transition with the confidence of someone who had watched it happen before and recognized the shape. And I meant every word. The experiences were real.
