CONCEPT
Trajectory vs Channel
The discipline of distinguishing the long-run arc of a technology (its trajectory) from the specific mechanism by which it arrives (its channel) — visible in Clarke's career of being right about the destination and wrong about the path.
Trajectory-vs-channel names the forecasting pattern in which a technology's long-run trajectory is identifiable decades in advance, while the specific mechanism that delivers it — the channel — is not. Clarke predicted global satellite communications in 1945; the trajectory was correct, the channel (first military, then civilian; first telephony, then television, then internet) was not. He predicted AI would arrive and force humanity to reconsider the meaning of purpose; the trajectory was correct, the channel (emergence from text prediction, arriving through chatbots rather than expert systems) was not. The distinction is practically important because the strategic value of a forecast depends on which of the two it is about.
In The You On AI Field Guide
A forecast of trajectory says: this capability will exist; the world will reorganize around it; the reorganization will produce predictable kinds of consequences. A forecast of channel says: the capability will arrive via mechanism X; the timing