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The Economics of Transformative AI (2025)
The December 2025 volume co-edited by Brynjolfsson, Ajay Agrawal, and Anton Korinek — sixteen studies from leading economists examining how AI of sufficient power would reshape innovation, market structure, employment, inequality, and human purpose.
The Economics of Transformative AI is the December 2025 volume edited by Ajay Agrawal (University of Toronto), Erik Brynjolfsson (Stanford), and Anton Korinek (University of Virginia). The book assembles sixteen studies from leading economists examining how AI of sufficient capability would reshape the fundamental structures of economic life. The volume's organizing concept — Transformative AI (TAI), defined as AI capable of increasing total-factor productivity growth by three to five times historical averages — was deliberately chosen over the more common artificial general intelligence. The distinction matters. AGI is a technical benchmark about whether machines can match human cognition across all domains. TAI is an economic benchmark about whether the technology is powerful enough to reshape the economy at a magnitude comparable to the steam engine or electrification. The economist's question is not whether the machine can think like a human. It is whether the machine can transform like a revolution.
