The multi-generational process beginning around 1440 through which European civilization shifted from handwritten manuscripts to printed books — the historical event whose structural mechanisms provide the sharpest available mirror for the AI transition.
The transition from scribal to print culture was not a single event but a process that unfolded over generations, produced winners and losers in proportions that no one anticipated, and transformed institutions that had seemed permanent into relics of a prior age. Between 1450 and 1500, an estimated twenty million volumes were printed in Europe — more than had been produced by all the scribes in all the monasteries in all the preceding centuries combined. The cost of a book dropped by roughly eighty percent. A text that would have taken a scribe months to copy could be set in type and printed in hundreds of identical copies in days. The consequences cascaded: cheaper texts meant more readers; rising literacy produced new markets; speculative publication became economically rational; new genres emerged; the institutional structure of medieval intellectual life was progressively displaced by new forms designed for print's abundance.