PERSON
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
See Nassim Nicholas Taleb—epistemologist of radical uncertainty, architect of the Black Swan and antifragility frameworks.
This entry is a canonical redirect. The full Field Guide article appears under nassim_nicholas_taleb. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (b. 1960) is the author of the Incerto series—Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, Antifragile, and Skin in the Game—and the builder of the most rigorous available framework for navigating domains governed by fat-tailed distributions and Black Swan events. His instruments—the narrative fallacy, the Lindy Effect, the barbell strategy, via negativa, skin in the game—apply to the AI moment with force that no directly AI-focused framework has matched. In February 2026 he warned Bloomberg that “tail-risk across sectors is structurally underpriced” in the AI trade and predicted software-sector bankruptcies as a structural property of a fat-tailed domain being priced with Mediocristan intuitions.
In the [YOU] on AI Field Guide
For the full entry, see Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The cycle holds Taleb as its epistemological governor—the voice that asks, of every clean story the transition generates, how much is the narrative fallacy and which structural arrangements will remain standing when