Five Great Surges
In The You On AI Field Guide
The first surge was launched by Richard Arkwright's cotton mill at Cromford in 1771, which combined water power, continuous operation, and a disciplined labor force into a system that transformed textile production and, within a century, reshaped civilization. The mill was not the first mechanized spinning operation, but it was the first to integrate mechanical, organizational, and disciplinary innovations into a coherent system that could be copied — and within a decade, it had been.
The second surge, the age of steam and railways, began around 1829 with the opening of the Liverpool and Manchester Railway and the triumph of Stephenson's Rocket. It produced the canal mania's successor in the railway mania of the 1840s and, after George Hudson's fall, the Victorian golden age that followed.
The third surge, the age of steel, electricity, and heavy engineering, began around 1875 with Bessemer steel and the electrical inventions of Edison and Tesla. It produced the Belle Époque before its turning point arrived in the First World War and the Great Depression. The fourth surge, the age of oil and mass production, irrupted around 1908 with Ford's Model T and produced, after the failed turning point of the 1920s and 1930s, the post-war golden age.
The fifth surge, the age of information and telecommunications, began in 1971 with the Intel microprocessor and produced the dot-com bubble, the 2008 financial crisis, and the incomplete deployment into which AI has arrived. Whether AI constitutes a sixth surge or the culminating technology of the fifth is a live debate whose resolution affects the diagnosis of the present moment.
Origin
Perez's enumeration builds on earlier work by Joseph Schumpeter, Nikolai Kondratieff, and Christopher Freeman on long waves in economic development. Her specific identification of five surges, with their start dates and characteristic technologies, has become the canonical framework in the technology-policy literature.
Key Ideas
1771 — Industrial Revolution. Arkwright's mill, the factory system, textile mechanization.
1829 — Steam and Railways. Stephenson's Rocket, the railway mania, Victorian engineering.
1875 — Steel and Electricity. Bessemer, Edison, Tesla, the Belle Époque.
1908 — Oil and Mass Production. Ford's Model T, the assembly line, the post-war consumer economy.
1971 — Information and Telecommunications. Intel microprocessor, the internet, the AI inheritance.
Debates & Critiques
Whether AI constitutes a sixth surge or belongs to the fifth is contested. Perez herself has argued for the latter — that AI is the culminating technology of the ICT revolution, arriving during what should have been the deployment phase. Other observers treat AI as the irruption of a new surge. The distinction determines whether the turning point is imminent (Perez's view) or decades away.
Further Reading
- Carlota Perez, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital (2002), ch. 2
- Christopher Freeman and Francisco Louçã, As Time Goes By (2001)
- Joseph Schumpeter, Business Cycles (1939)