Behavioral Futures Markets

Behavioral futures markets are the economic infrastructure through which surveillance capitalism monetizes behavioral surplus. They are markets in the literal sense—venues where buyers and sellers transact—but the commodity being traded is predictions about what people will do. Advertisers buy predictions about which users will click. Retailers buy predictions about which customers will purchase. Political campaigns buy predictions about which voters will be persuaded by which messages. Insurers buy predictions about which applicants will file claims. Employers, in the emerging frontier of AI-era cognitive sorting, could buy predictions about which workers will perform well, which will adapt to new tools, which possess the evaluative intellective skill that AI-augmented work demands. The markets operate with minimal public visibility—most people whose behavior is being predicted and sold are unaware that the transaction is occurring—and with minimal democratic accountability. The regulatory frameworks governing these markets are nascent, fragmented, and consistently outpaced by the markets' evolution.