The Non-Proliferation Analogy

The Non-Proliferation Analogy is Nye's repeated invocation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as historical precedent for AI governance. The NPT, which Nye helped implement as a senior official in the Carter administration, did not merely constrain nuclear capability. It established a normative framework most nations voluntarily joined, not because they were coerced but because the framework was perceived as legitimate — as serving the interests of humanity broadly rather than the interests of the nuclear powers narrowly. Nye argued that an AI governance framework of comparable legitimacy would represent the most significant exercise of soft power since the postwar international order. The analogy is instructive not as a blueprint but as a demonstration: that legitimate governance frameworks are themselves the highest form of soft power, and that their construction requires specific institutional work different from mere capability accumulation.