PERSON
Jane Smorodnikova
Financial analyst whose December 2025 AI Bubble Survival Guide applied the Minsky-Kindleberger five-stage model directly to the AI cycle and identified the market's entry into the profit-taking stage.
Jane Smorodnikova, writing in her December 2025 AI Bubble Survival Guide, mapped the Minsky-Kindleberger five-stage model directly onto the AI cycle and concluded that the market had already entered Stage Four — the profit-taking stage where 'early holders are converting paper to cash while the music plays.' Her analysis represented one of the most explicit applications of Kindleberger's framework to real-time AI investment decisions, combining financial analysis with historical pattern recognition in a manner that Kindleberger himself would have appreciated.
In The You On AI Field Guide
Whether Smorodnikova's specific timing is correct is unknowable in advance. Kindleberger was characteristically adamant that the pattern is reliable while the timing is not. What her analysis demonstrates is the utility of explicit framework application to real-time investment decisions — the discipline of asking, at each stage of a technology cycle, which Kindleberger stage the market currently occupies and what the framework predicts about the transition to the next stage.
Her identification of Stage Four as the profit-taking