By Edo Segal
The number I could not stop recalculating was two-thirds.
Not revenue. Not headcount. Not the adoption curve that swallowed the industry in sixty days. two-thirds — the fraction of software development effort that Frederick Brooks, in 1986, attributed to the irreducible difficulty of understanding the problem you are trying to solve. The essential complexity. The part no tool can touch.
His argument was precise: since most of the work is essential, no tool improvement can deliver a transformative leap. Better languages, better frameworks, better methodologies — each shaves away some accidental overhead, but the hard core remains. No silver bullet.
For forty years, he was right. Every promised revolution delivered an increment. The industry kept searching. Brooks kept being confirmed.
A reading-companion catalog of the 32 Orange Pill Wiki entries linked from this book — the people, ideas, works, and events that Frederick Brooks — On AI uses as stepping stones for thinking through the AI revolution.
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